Self-Contradicting American Populace

The latest Reuters/Zogby Index, which measures the general mood of the American people has an interesting trend that is somewhat conflicting.

Concerns about personal finances, job security, safety and the direction of the country all eased at least slightly in the last month, brightening the outlook for Americans who had slipped into a funk around the holidays.

There were some dark clouds. For the first time, a majority of Americans, 54 percent, expect a recession in the next year, up from last month's 48 percent, as a housing downturn and credit crunch take their toll.

On a personal level, the general consensus among Americans was that times are getting better with their own situations. However, more Americans think we are heading into a recession as a country. Only one of the other can be true. If everyone's personal finances are generally doing better than they were a month ago, then the economy is on an upswing and not on a pathway to a recession.

My hypothesis is that people are generally right about their own situations, and in this case generally wrong about the economy. Housing and lending is one area of the economy not doing so well, but on other fronts, I think we're doing fine. In order for the Democrats to take the White House back in November, they have to convince the American people the economy is not doing well, and that they are the arbiters of change necessary to fix it. This strategy is working brilliantly, as demonstrated in this poll.